Gold vs. Stocks: Risk/Reward + Your Questions | Bill Murphy (Jun 26, 2018)

Gold vs. Stocks: Risk/Reward + Your Questions | Bill Murphy (Jun 26, 2018)
“Should I stay or should I go now?
If I go, there will be trouble
And if I stay it will be double
So come on and let me know
Should I stay or should I go?”
~ The Clash

(Recorded Jun 26, 2018)
Which course of action is more prudent today: investing more money into the burgeoning stock market, or hedging with precious metals as insurance against financial disaster?

With stock markets at record high valuations compared to all of history, and precious metals at or below the cost of production, a contrarian defensive approach justifies close scrutiny of the major factors driving public sentiment towards or away from different investment options.

Widely followed watchdog Bill Murphy, co–founder of The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee ( returns to Reluctant Preppers to spell out the key points to ponder today, including: the gold/silver ratio, the Dow/gold ratio, and the suppression of the truth by major media. Murphy also addresses your viewer questions!

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Gold vs. Stocks: Risk/Reward + Your Questions | Bill Murphy (Jun 26, 2018)

11 thoughts on “Gold vs. Stocks: Risk/Reward + Your Questions | Bill Murphy (Jun 26, 2018)”

  1. Total nonsense! The world has passed Murphy by just like those who promote metals. Murphy once said that people would be "shocked" if they knew how few people are actually on the floor of the NYSE. Because of computers the days of brokers and market makers walking around with order books are long gone. He also said that the huge volume of the Comex which is more than inventory proves price suppression. Let's look at that volume and any professional traders knows this. Shorts using put options are by physical commodity producers, wholesalers, large dealers, and traders. Even SD Bullion usess put options when they receive large orders for financial protection in case prices fall. The Comex like all futures markets are made up off mostly hedges. If you are in the physical commodity business you had better be hedging. If I am a large wholesaler the chances are I rely on a line of credit for day to day operations.and my inventory is my collateral. What happens if prices fall low enough and I my lender says either pay down the loan or put up more collateral. For financial protection I would buy put options myself or I would have one of the banks with a trading desk buy my hedges for me. If prices fall low enough I can exercise my hedges for cash and pay down the loan if called. If the lender knows that my hedges are in place it is unlikely that the loan is called. In addition to physical commodities being hedges so are dollars both long and short. If I am a currency trader, speculator or hedge fund and I am trading dollars in FX markets one of my hedges is to either buy call or put options on the Comex depending if I am long or short or both, (longer term trades and hedges in place but also trading extremely short term. Since the dollar is the most widely traded currency on the planet and if you trade you must hedge, hence the large volume on the Comex. The metals promoters ould like you to believe that sincce there are more contracts than physical the exchange will eventually default. BULLSHIT! Folks most contracts are hedges and most of these expire worthless as it is simply the cost of doing business and the ones that are triggered most settle in cash. If I am a currency trader hedging and my hedge is triggered do you really think I am going to take physical possession with the delivery and storage costs? Folks I want cash and you can keep your metal.
    Now take the bullion banks like JP Morgan and again the promoters are clueless as to their function or they do know but keep up with the bullshit narrative. These banks are really clearing houses for physical metals. They bring together buyers and sellers and when acting as a broker collect a fee. Their clients are anyone who has a large amount of metals that need to be sold or bought like miners, wholesalers, large dealers, industry, etc. Like Rob Kirby said when ask who owns Morgan's large inventory, he replied "I do not know but it is not JP Mortgan's!" Banks also buy and sell from their own account. If a miner has supply but there is no demand the bank would buy and then attempt to find a buyer. Now don't think for a moment that the bank would suppress prices by selling their inventory below spot. Folks it just doe not happen. This guarantees an orderly market for both buyers and sellers.. Again banks also place hedges for their clients.
    COT report. The Disaggregated COT takes info from the LTGACY COT and has four types of traders. These are Producer/Merchant/Processor/User; Swap Dealers; Managed Money; and Other Reportables. The LAGACT has only two" commercials and noncommercials. The commercials are basically two types, Institutional commercial and Corporate commercials. Institutional usually place trades for money managers and Corporate are usuaaly hired by firms to enhance revenue to tp protect profits. Banks can bei in either category and are not strictly limited to the noncommercial category as in the LEGACY COT/ So you see there are mnay reasons why volume is so large in futures including the Comex. Without these markets many commodity producers, wholesalers, dealers and other entities would not exist.
    Now if you look at all the charges brought and the fines levied they all have one thing in common. Traders and other entities were moving price not only lower but also higher. Because these was always very short term prices then would revert back to the mean as the long term trend cannot be changed by manipulation regardless how many times the metal promoters claim this. Next time one tells you this just ask, "Do you trade markets professionally?"
    One thing that most do not understand about futures in options. Let's say I believe Google is going to go up from its current price of $1074. I want 100 share but do not have the approx. $100,000 needed. I would buy a call option at current price and if prices rose enough to trigger the option I can buy Google at the lower price and then sell. But wait I do not have that pesky $100,000. What to do" Exercise my contract for cash and be a happy camper. Same thing happens in futures on commodity markets including the Comex.
    Now the dollar and Dow bullshit! Many who bought metals in 2011 are angry as they not only are underwater or ssold for losses but have realized if they had left their cash in equities would be sitting on small fortunes. Back in 2009 Armstrong Economics computer models forecast that Europe would eventually collapse and capital leaving would move into dollars and US equities especially the Dow. The forecasts were 22,000 then 23,000 and finally to around 40,000 as capital is simply parked in dollar based assets and this is exactly what we have been seeing. Back in June of 2016 the models forecast that if gold did not break the 1362 reversal level at July;s close this would indicate capital is accelerating out and will move into dollar based assets. Gold closed at 1361 and the dollar strengthened and the Dow kept moving higher from capital flight. There was so much capital being converted from euros to dollars that this actually created dollar shortages in foreign markets. Gold fell from 1361 all the way to around the 1100 handle. The metal promoters were all claiming that ithe Dow was being propped up by the FED, and the "cartel" was smashing prices of gold to instill dollar confidence. Folks total bullshit as it was simply caused by capital flight. This is the "smart" money moving capital as needed.
    The models are also forecasting as we move to the end of 2018 the capital will accelerate again into dollar based assets. We just saw this recently with the emerging market collapses as capital was fleeing mostly due to Draghi press conference where he said that QE would continue thru 2019 and LONGER if needed. You do not have to be a professional trader to understand that this would weaken the euro, strengthen the dollar and Europe would collapse faster than it already is. The EU, euro, most banks, corporations and countries will not survive in their present form. He has destroyed the bond market there, the traditional banking system with negative rates, whole economies there and to say they are in panic mode is an understatement. Brussels, (Germany) also completely underestimated the migrant cost and this also helped many countries be insolvent. All of France's cities are broke. over 50% of all German cities are broke, most banks are insolvent, Spain's pension fund runs out completely at the end of 2018, German industry wants massive tax breaks and are threatening to leave because of US tax cuts, German health agency reported a 3 billion euro deficit all due to migrant cost and this is happening all over Europe. Even Brussels pension fund for the technocrats is running out. Now would you park capital anywhere in Europe?
    About 5 months ago Brussels ask for an emergency meeting with Martin Armstrong and staff at Armstrong Economics. The EU officials were toldd that the collapse cannot be stopped. Brussels then responded by announcing a 25% increase in member fees, wanting a tax on all financial transactions and wanting to tax directly all EU citizens and businesses. Then you had Juncker and Micron of France come out and what to consolidate all sovereign debt and make all EU members responsible. I bet that went over well in Germany! Now the latest is a plan to have one EU wide budget taking over financial control of each member country. Folks if all of this doesn't show how desperate Europe is, why capital is fleeing, why the dollar was rising and will continue, why the Dow has risen and also will continue and metals why are behaving as they do and also will fall hard as we move into the future then I do not know what to tell you. The models forecast that in 2021 the shit hits the fan there and you know now what will happen to the dollar and the Dow!
    There is an old saying, "Follow the money!"

  2. Your neighbor will be knocking on your door to buy your gold before the digital number on your computer screen goes higher. It will never happen. Its a technological phenomenon unrelated to markets and finance. The metals will discover their true value outside of the central banker's digital domain, in new markets measured in new monies. This is the way that the market must reconcile the value of the metals in our age of government sanctioned digital market fraud.

  3. The Chinese are too smart for the West. The scary thing about the Chinese is when they say they are going to do something, they do something.

  4. Companies need to start making more things out of silver while it is cheap (eyeglasses, dog bowls, cups etc) Very anti-microbial

  5. Not everything important that we do is an "investment" to profit from. Some things we do on principle, in the hopes of a better world. Holding gold on principle, in an out of control, artificial fiat world, is one of those things.

  6. Gary Gensler is the SOB that oversaw the initial corrupt J.P.Morgan silver Fraud, his Fu$#*ng head should roll.

  7. we're still hanging in there. Sooner or later they will lose control either intentionally or through circumstance. I don't think they will let the baby boomers keep their 401/403 accounts.

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